Bleacher Report's Expert Week 12 NFL Picks

As NFL contenders separate from pretenders, the Bleacher Report crew continues to move forward as a solid unit, challenging each other with their picks in scorching hot weeks. Each expert is separated by one to four wins in the standings against the spread.

B/R analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, and Maurice Moton, along with editors Wes O'Donnell, Ian Hanford, and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting Strategy, chose a particular theme for Week 12.

They love road favorites. Of the eight road favorites, our experts backed six to win outright.

Will the home dogs spoil a good run for our B/R panel? Let's go through the picks to find out why several visiting teams will get the job done this week.

First, take a look at the ATS standings for our experts, with last week's records in parentheses.

ATS Standings

1. O'Donnell: 94-68-4 (7-7)

2. Hanford: 90-72-4 (10-4)

3. Knox: 88-74-4 (9-5)

4. Sobleski: 86-76-4 (7-7)

5. Davenport: 84-78-4 (10-4)

6. Moton: 82-80-4 (9-5)

7. Michelino: 81-81-4 (7-7)

8. Gagnon 80-82-4 (5-9)

Consensus picks: 75-61-2 (8-5)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 20, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by TeamRankings.

DraftKings Line: Pittsburgh -3.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers head into Week 12 on a hot streak in the standings and against the spread. The Steelers' ATS record matches their win-loss mark, and they have covered in five straight games.

Bettors should be mindful of a short total (36.5) and a chance of precipitation for Thursday's game, though.

Because of the projected weather conditions, the Steelers and Browns may play sloppy football on a short week, which increases the probability of a low-scoring game with a thin margin of victory.

Hanford expects the Steelers to win, but he's concerned about their poor Thursday Night Football history on the road and against divisional opponents.

"This just feels like a typical letdown spot for a red-hot Steelers team. AFC North rivalry game on the road on a short week coming off two straight playoff-caliber wins? Added to that is the fact that the Steelers have never won a divisional game on the road on Thursday Night Football. They're 0-7 all-time and 0-5 under Tomlin. Tomlin only has two road wins on TNF in general.

"I'm not sure the Steelers ultimately lose this one, but I'm expecting them to be on autopilot for at least half the game before they realize they have a game to play against a two-win Browns team. Steelers win by a field goal, but Browns cover the 3.5."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Steelers

Hanford: Browns

Knox: Steelers

Michelino: Browns

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Browns

Sobleski: Steelers

ATS Consensus: Steelers -3.5

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Browns 16

DK Line: Tampa Bay -5.5

The New York Giants have benched Daniel Jones in favor of Tommy DeVito, which adds a wrinkle to this matchup.

As an undrafted rookie last year, DeVito played in nine games and started in six of them, throwing for 1,101 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions with a 64 percent completion rate.

Though DeVito lost the starting job to Tyrod Taylor in the last two weeks of the season, he performed at the level of a serviceable starter.

Now, DeVito has explosive rookie wideout Malik Nabers and dual-threat running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. who can make plays on the ground and in the short passing game at his disposal.

Despite the positives around DeVito, O'Donnell doesn't think Big Blue's new starting quarterback can keep pace with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' fifth-ranked scoring attack.

"Daniel Jones wasn't the only problem with the New York Giants offense. Replacing Jones with 'Danny DeVito' coming out the bye week isn't enough to spark something relevant other than fun family recipe anecdotes inspired by DeVito's now-well-known story, even against a Bucs defense that bleeds yards and points.

"Baker Mayfield's ability to improvise when the pocket breaks down is a problem for a Big Blue defense whose secondary is more aggravating than the worst chicken parmesan dish you've ever been served–even with the injuries Tampa has in its pass-catching group. Mike Evans may actually return, and riding a four-game losing streak out of their bye, the Bucs should win this game, and it really shouldn't be that close. Having to cover less than one touchdown here is as comforting as a home-cooked meal.

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Giants

Hanford: Buccaneers

Knox: Buccaneers

Michelino: Buccaneers

Moton: Giants

O'Donnell: Buccaneers

Sobleski: Buccaneers

ATS Consensus: Buccaneers -5.5

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Giants 21

DK Line: Kansas City -10.5

How will the reigning champions respond to their first loss of the season? Will they limit the workload of their older players to preserve them for a playoff run or flex their muscles against a bottom-tier opponent?

Our panelists pondered those questions before taking a side on a massive spread.

The Chiefs may not feel the need to run up the score. They could win decisively and not cover the spread. Kansas City has only one win by more than 10 points this season, a 26-13 victory over the New Orleans Saints.

Also, note that coming off a bye week, the Carolina Panthers may get wideout Adam Thielen back in action and add rookie Jonathon Brooks to their backfield for his pro debut.

Nonetheless, Gagnon thinks the Chiefs will go on the road and hit the gas pedal in Carolina.

"The Chiefs coming off a rare loss? The Panthers suddenly winners of back-to-back games? This is a recipe for a blowout as Kansas City bounces back. This is simply a regression pick. I'd lay 16 or 17 points with the Chiefs."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Chiefs

Hanford: Chiefs

Knox: Chiefs

Michelino: Panthers

Moton: Chiefs

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Panthers

ATS Consensus: Chiefs -10.5

Score Prediction: Chiefs 31, Panthers 14

DK Line: Detroit -7.5

The Detroit Lions have no issues embarrassing opponents who aren't ready to play four quarters.

At 5-6, with a decent run game, the Indianapolis Colts are a formidable opponent, but they're giving up the fifth-most total yards.

Though Anthony Richardson helped lead the Colts to victory over the New York Jets, Indianapolis allowed Gang Green's discombobulated offense to score a season-high 27 points.

If the Jets, now in complete disarray, had their best scoring output against the Colts, the Lions may feast on another below-average defense.

Sobleski spoke on behalf of the group's unanimous decision in favor of Detroit.

"While Anthony Richardson returned to the Colts lineup and looked like the quarterback most envisioned upon entering this season, inconsistency is expected within his game. He's going to miss some throws and likely make a few mistakes. The same can't really be said with counterpart Jared Goff with how the Lions are currently playing.

"The biggest question is the spread in Detroit's favor. Considering that the Lions cleared 7.5 points in four of their last six games since their bye and won games by an average of 22.8 points during that stretch, it's an easy choice here."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Lions

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Lions

Michelino: Lions

Moton: Lions

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Lions

ATS Consensus: Lions -7.5

Score Prediction: Lions 30, Colts 20

DK Line: Miami -7

Following consecutive wins, the Miami Dolphins are back in the playoff mix. They're a distant second in the AFC East behind the Buffalo Bills (9-2) but only a couple of games outside a wild-card spot in the conference.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is playing with a torn ligament in his wrist, but tight end Jonnu Smith has emerged as a playmaker in the Dolphins' passing attack. Last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, Smith recorded a career-high 101 receiving yards and his third two-touchdown performance.

With a three-man backfield that features De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright, the Dolphins offense could resemble the unit that finished second in scoring last year.

Moton likes what he's seen out of Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, but he believes that recent history bodes well for the Dolphins who are starting to heat up on offense.

"Let's lean on the matchup history here. The Patriots have struggled against the Dolphins in Miami over the previous four years. They lost by at least nine points in their last four trips to Hard Rock Stadium. While rookie quarterback Drake Maye has provided a spark for New England's offense, the Patriots' trend of losses by sizeable margins in Miami will continue on Sunday.

"Since Tua Tagovailoa's return, the Dolphins are 3-1 against the spread, and the offense has averaged 27.8 points per game. Based on the line for this contest, the sportsbooks have adjusted to Miami's resurgent offense, though bettors can still take the Dolphins with room for another cover."

Predictions

Davenport: Patriots

Gagnon: Dolphins

Hanford: Patriots

Knox: Patriots

Michelino: Patriots

Moton: Dolphins

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Patriots +7

Score Prediction: Dolphins 26, Patriots 20

DK Line: Minnesota -3.5

Under interim offensive play-caller Thomas Brown, the Chicago Bears offense took on a physical approach with a powerhouse ground attack that involved quarterback Caleb Williams.

Brown, who played and coached the running back position, will likely continue to call for a ground-and-pound approach, but the Bears face a tough task in running the ball against the Minnesota Vikings' No. 1-ranked run defense.

Nonetheless, Knox made a case in favor of the Bears to cover and against the Vikings, who have cooled off after a hot start to the season.

"The switch to new offensive play-caller Thomas Brown seemed to have a positive impact on Caleb Williams and the Bears in Week 11. It wasn't enough to get the win, of course, and I think the blame falls on Matt Eberflus. He didn't allow Green Bay to block the potential game-winning field goal, but his poor clock and situational management at the end of the game was problematic.

"Disastrous finish aside, Chicago looked and played like a much more competitive team than it has in recent weeks. I expect that to continue against a Minnesota team that suddenly seems to just be scraping by mediocre squads. I'll take the Bears and the points in Chicago."

Predictions

Davenport: Bears

Gagnon: Vikings

Hanford: Bears

Knox: Bears

Michelino: Bears

Moton: Vikings

O'Donnell: Vikings

Sobleski: Vikings

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Vikings 20, Bears 17

DK Line: Houston -8.5

The Houston Texans aren't quite an AFC South juggernaut, but they're back on the right track after losing three of four games between Weeks 7 and 10.

With rising star wide receiver Nico Collins back in action, the Texans offense should be on the upswing after it leaned on running back Joe Mixon for about a month.

The Texans have only covered a spread at this number once this season, a 41-21 win over the New England Patriots, but Sobleski thinks Houston, like other playoff-caliber teams have done, has enough offensive firepower to cover against the Tennessee Titans.

"The Texans appear to be back on track with their win over the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Titans haven't beaten a quality opponent since this season began, only overcoming the Tua Tagovailoa-less Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots.

"Tennessee can keep games close, thanks to its second-ranked defense. However, both the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings were able to move the ball, gain over 300 yards of offense and win by double-digits during Tennessee's current two-game losing streak."

Predictions

Davenport: Titans

Gagnon: Texans

Hanford: Titans

Knox: Texans

Michelino: Texans

Moton: Titans

O'Donnell: Titans

Sobleski: Texans

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Texans 26, Titans 16

DK Line: Washington -10

The Washington Commanders are one of the league's most pleasant surprises, but they have dropped consecutive games to playoff-caliber opponents.

Are they fraudulent postseason contenders? Time will tell.

This week, the Commanders should get back into the win column in a matchup with the listless Dallas Cowboys, losers in five straight games. Without quarterback Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have scored 16 points in two games.

Davenport agrees with that sentiment, but he pumped the brakes on how dominant the Commanders will be in this contest.

"Welcome to this week's edition of 'How Many Points Will the Cowboys Get Blasted By This Week?' Davenport joked. "Or, as it's known in Europe (the Star is everywhere, y'all.), 'Mike McCarthy is So Doing Fox's D Team Broadcasts in 2025.'"

"Those Europeans. Always with the optimism.

"So why take the points with Dallas?

"Because for a half at least last week in Houston, the Cowboys hung around. Because Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels isn't as dynamic as earlier in the season due to his rib injury and the Commanders have the latest of byes. Because Washington's defense has shown itself leaky enough to be ripe for a back-door cover.

"Or maybe because I'm an idiot. One can never be sure about these things.

"Washington wins, but doesn't cover."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Commanders

Hanford: Cowboys

Knox: Commanders

Michelino: Commanders

Moton: Commanders

O'Donnell: Commanders

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Commanders -10

Score Prediction: Commanders 28, Cowboys 13

DK Line: Denver -5.5

The Denver Broncos are one of two teams with a league-best 5-1 road record ATS.

On top of that, Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has played well and efficiently, throwing for six touchdowns without an interception over the last two weeks against the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons.

Meanwhile, the Raiders limp into the contest with a long list of injuries on a six-game losing streak.

Last week, Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew showed improvement in his first game under interim offensive coordinator Scott Turner, throwing for 282 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, but Las Vegas only ran for 60 yards.

Moton has major concerns about the Raiders defense (healthy or not), so he sided with the Broncos to cover in this spot.

"The Raiders' injuries are starting to pile up and impact their defense. Last week, they took the field without nickelback Nate Hobbs. Cornerbacks Jakorian Bennett and Jack Jones suffered injuries. Remember, starting edge-rusher Malcolm Koonce and Christian Wilkins are on injured reserve.

"But let's not make injury excuses for the Raiders. They have allowed an average of 31.3 points per game since the Broncos throttled them 34-18 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 5.

"After a blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens and a heartbreaking defeat on a blocked field goal, the Broncos have found their swagger. More importantly, Bo Nix has played at a high level against defenses on the same tier or better than the Raiders' unit.

"The Broncos complete a season series sweep on the Raiders with a win by a touchdown or more."

Predictions

Davenport: Broncos

Gagnon: Broncos

Hanford: Broncos

Knox: Broncos

Michelino: Broncos

Moton: Broncos

O'Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Broncos

ATS Consensus: Broncos -5.5

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Raiders 17

DK Line: Green Bay -2.5

This season, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been turnover-prone, throwing at least one interception in all eight of his games. He threw a costly interception in the red zone last week, but the Packers still escaped Chicago with victory on a blocked field goal.

The Packers have an above-average win-loss record, but they're not a dominant team. Most of our panel faded the home favorite in this contest.

While the 49ers have some key injuries to monitor with quarterback Brock Purdy (shoulder), tight end George Kittle (hamstring) and defensive end Nick Bosa (oblique) on the mend, Gagnon backed them because they're likely desperate for a win to avoid dropping below .500.

"Brock Purdy's status is of course a big factor, but something about the Packers just isn't sitting right. They were lucky to beat the Bears, they didn't really hang with the Lions at home, and they wrapped up October by outscoring the Texans and Jaguars by a combined five points. The resilient 49ers really need this, so I'm taking the points. That said, I'd buy up to a field goal if possible and reasonable."

Predictions

Davenport: Packers

Gagnon: 49ers

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Michelino: Packers

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: Packers

ATS Consensus: 49ers +2.5

Score Prediction: 49ers 26, Packers 23

DK Line: Seattle -1

The Arizona Cardinals have a 7-3 record ATS, and they're coming off a bye week on a four-game winning streak. Perhaps the sportsbooks aren't respecting the Cardinals enough with a pick 'em line.

Then again, the Seattle Seahawks have beaten the Cardinals in five consecutive games. Kyler Murray only missed one of those contests.

Despite the Seahawks' impressive comeback road victory over the San Francisco 49ers last week, our panel didn't favor them in this divisional matchup.

Davenport cited Murray's exceptional play and a defense that's playing better than most expected as reasons to back Arizona.

"The NFC West has quietly become the NFL's most fascinating division—four teams all neither bad nor great, with none taking hold of the division or falling too far off the pace. It makes every game more important—especially the intra-division ones.

"This is one of Week 12's harder calls, and it has the makings of one of the week's better games. Kyler Murray is third in the league in QBR. The Arizona ground game ranks fifth in the league, averaging just short of 150 yards per game. And the Redbirds are quietly 12th in scoring defense.

"The Cardinals, in Week 12 at least, are the best team in the NFC West. And with the Niners and Rams both facing stouter opponents, Arizona has an opportunity to really seize control of the division."

Predictions

Davenport: Cardinals

Gagnon: Cardinals

Hanford: Cardinals

Knox: Cardinals

Michelino: Seahawks

Moton: Cardinals

O'Donnell: Cardinals

Sobleski: Cardinals

ATS Consensus: Cardinals +1

Score Prediction: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 24

DK Line: Philadelphia -2.5

Over the past month, we've seen a dominant Philadelphia Eagles squad and a team that's played down to its competition.

Philadelphia has won six consecutive games and outscored its last two opponents 60-24.

Conversely, the Eagles have had issues covering spreads against bottom-tier teams, eking out wins against the Cleveland Browns (20-16) and Jacksonville Jaguars (28-23).

That said, oddsmakers priced this game correctly, with Philadelphia as a slight road favorite in a prime-time game against a formidable opponent.

Knox gave the Eagles the edge, thinking they could cover a thin spread in a matchup that favors their passing attack.

"The Rams are resilient, have an improving young defense and still have Matthew Stafford running the offense. However, the Rams' secondary remains a liability, and I think that will cost them against an Eagles team that has quietly morphed into a contender since its bye.

"Philly's secondary seems to get better with each passing week, and while it can't completely shut down Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, I think it can do enough to slow the Rams' passing attack.

"The Rams may find a way to limit Saquon Barkley, but I think they'll have a lot more trouble with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the back end. I expect this game to be a close one that unfolds similarly to the Rams' last prime-time outing—a 23-15 loss to the Dolphins in Los Angeles."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Eagles

Hanford: Rams

Knox: Eagles

Michelino: Eagles

Moton: Eagles

O'Donnell: Rams

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Eagles -2.5

Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Rams 23

DK Line: Baltimore -3

To start the week of Thanksgiving, Monday Night Football will showcase the Harbaugh Bowl, with brothers competing as head coaches leading AFC playoff contenders.

John Harbaugh's Baltimore Ravens are coming off a close loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He still believes in kicker Justin Tucker, who missed two field-goal attempts in that matchup, which is key for a game with a three-point spread.

Offensively, Baltimore will likely feed league-leading rusher Derrick Henry more than 13 carries, which is the number of rush attempts he had last week in that loss.

Jim Harbaugh's Los Angeles Chargers have picked up momentum on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 28.5 points per game over the past four weeks.

Moreover, the Chargers don't beat themselves. They're tied with the Washington Commanders for the fewest turnovers (five). Justin Herbert hasn't thrown an interception since Week 2.

The winner of this matchup probably wins on a crucial play, capitalizing off a miscue, which makes this a tough call.

Michelino expects the Ravens to wear down the Chargers defense enough to win by more than a field goal on the road.

"For the first time since Super Bowl XLVII, America is treated to another Har-Bowl as the Ravens head to SoFi Stadium to play the surging Chargers on Monday Night Football," Michelino said.

"Despite their road struggles, the Ravens enter as three-point favorites in a matchup featuring the second highest point total of the week (set at 50). In near perfect conditions, there's every reason to believe Baltimore's first ranked offense gets back on track after a tough showing against Steelers.

"But it won't be easy, as Jim Harbaugh's magic touch has turned things around for the Chargers faster than anyone could have anticipated. Their defense is talented and they've started to unlock Justin Herbert's full potential. An offense that began the season very conservative has gotten more aggressive in recent weeks and can exploit this poor Ravens secondary.

"Still, I believe this game that has all the makings of an offensive shootout and that favors Baltimore. l would rather the more explosive offense featuring an MVP candidate and RB having a historic rushing campaign…not to mention, John is 2-0 vs. Jim. and I like big bro to go for the three-peat."

Predictions

Davenport: Chargers

Gagnon: Ravens

Hanford: Ravens

Knox: Chargers

Michelino: Ravens

Moton: Ravens

O'Donnell: Chargers

Sobleski: Chargers

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Chargers 23

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